Como más de una vez hemos comentado, uno de los principios de la prospectiva es que, al contrario que el determinismo, el futuro es múltiple y los futuros posibles (futuribles) son varios.
En este contexto, la descripción de un futurible y del recorrido asociado al mismo constituyen un escenario.
Los escenarios representan diferentes imágenes de futuro (Futuribles). Construir estas imágenes de futuro nos ayuda a comprender cómo las decisiones y las acciones que hoy tomamos pueden influir en nuestro futuro.
Existen diferentes metodologías para la elaboración de escenarios y en el trabajo de analisis sectoriales que llevamos a cabo, nos planteamos la posibilidad de:
- Elaboración de escenarios a partir del método Delphi.
- Elaboración de escenarios a partir del método SMIC.
- Elaboración de escenarios a partir del análisis morfológico.
- ...
Finalmente, nos decantaremos por utilizar el método del análisis morfológico para la construcción de los escenarios sectoriales dado el tiempo disponible y las posibilidades que tenemos.
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loans+iv+of
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